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By Alexandre Sagakian

By Alexandre Sagakian

11.09.16 Research

How We Performed on Our Swing State Forecasts

11.09.16 Research

Qriously carried out one of the largest ever state level polls over last weekend before the elections with over 17,780 interviews across seven key battleground U.S. states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado, North Carolina, Arizona), ranging from 881 registered voters in Colorado to 2,598 registered voters in Florida.

In 6 of the 7 swing states we polled, we clearly saw red with either a Trump lead or a toss-up, as opposed to 3 Clinton leads and 2 toss-ups on the most Trump-leaning poll aggregator (FiveThirtyEight). In particular we predicted a Trump victory in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan.

We Correctly Predicted Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio

Even though we didn’t predict Trump picking up Florida (and Clinton picking up Colorado), we warned that Pennsylvania and Michigan would not be as heavily-Democratic as assumed. In addition, FiveThirtyEight saw Ohio as a battleground, while we were 95% sure it would go to Trump and successfully predicted a landslide in the state.

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METHODOLOGY

Fieldwork Dates: 4th November (9:30 am ET) – 7th November (3 am ET)

Data Collection Method: Fieldwork was conducted via mobile. We intercept smartphone users in 50,000 mobile apps to invite them to participate in the survey. Apps are selected dynamically to generate a balanced demographic sample.

Sample: 17,780 US adults 18+ in seven states, including 10,786 registered voters as follows:

  • Florida: 2,598 registered voters
  • Ohio: 1,588 registered voters
  • Pennsylvania: 1,734 registered voters
  • Michigan: 1,686 registered voters
  • North Carolina: 1,366 registered voters
  • Arizona: 933 registered voters
  • Colorado: 881 registered voters

Weighting: Results were weighted to reflect the profile of state residents on gender, age, ethnicity and party affiliation.

 

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