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By Alexandre Sagakian

By Alexandre Sagakian

06.23.16 Data Research

Qriously Exclusive On-the-day EU Referendum Poll Leave Leading With 56% vs 44% Remain

06.23.16 Data Research

Qriously has carried out its own EU referendum on-the-day poll by asking a representative sample of 1,077 actual voters how they voted. Overall we interviewed 1,857 adults 18+ from 6pm to 9:45pm BST. Our results suggest Leave will win with 56% of the votes which is a 12pt lead over Remain.

Remain heavily supported by Women, Young People and Scotland

In terms of demographic breakdown, we see some clear trends in voting behaviour:

  • Men were more likely to vote Leave and Women to vote Remain
  • Young people (18-24yo) and Students are by far the most pro-remain group
  • Scotland has also very strongly voted for Remain

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13% of voters made up their mind on the day of the vote

A higher proportion (16%) of Remain voters have made up their mind on the day of the election vs 10.5% of Leave voters.

As you could expect, most of voters who made up their mind today (89%) were undecided before but 11% of last minute deciders changed their mind from one side to another:

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Clearly Remain has benefited from a late swing both from undecided citizens, but also slightly more people changed from Leave to Remain than the other way around. This is what everyone was expecting (the usual last minute swing towards the status quo).

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Economy and Immigration were the issues that mattered most in deciding how people voted

Most voters decided how they would vote based on economy/jobs and immigration. This split clearly by vote, with Remain voters particularly concerned about the economy, and Leave voters very concerned about immigration.

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For remain voters, here is the ranking of the top 3 issues:

  1. Economy / jobs (55% indicated this was their primary reason for voting)
  2. Their own situation (20%)
  3. NHS / Healthcare (15%)

For Leave voters, here is the ranking:

  1. Immigration (46%)
  2. NHS / Healthcare (22%)
  3. Their own situation (14%)

The reason most eligible people did not vote is because they are not interested in politics or did not have enough information to choose

15% of eligible voters did not vote because they think their vote would not make a difference in the referendum outcome. Interestingly this was a bigger reason for eligible voters leaning toward Leave which shows they thought they could not win.

A high proportion of Remain leaners who did not vote thought what they believed was not represented by either side.

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Methodology 

Fieldwork Dates: 23rd June 2016 (6pm – 9:45pm BST)

Data Collection Method: Fieldwork was conducted via mobile. We intercept smartphone users in 50,000 mobile apps to invite them to participate in the survey. Apps are selected dynamically to generate a balanced demographic sample. 

Sample: 1,857 UK adults 18+

Weighting: Results were weighted to reflect the profile of adults 18+ in the UK on gender, age, region, previous vote (in 2015) and education.

 

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