In line with our recent work on the Dutch, French, and British elections, we also ran a quick poll in South Korea – our first attempt to assess political sentiment in the APAC region. Respecting South Korea’s poll black-out, we Tweeted a hash of our prediction just prior to the election. You can verify our hash with this image.
Although we slightly overestimated the performance of Sim Sang-jung and underestimated Hong Jun-pyo’s performance, our prediction was overall accurate and we successfully called the winner of the election – Moon Jae-in. Given our low sample size of only 920 respondents and our inexperience in South Korean polling, we consider this to be another strong success for our polling team.
This is a great showcase of our polling capabilities outside our usual targets of Europe and the USA. In line with this, we’ll be continuing to predict the results of elections in more far-flung regions, notably New Zealand and Singapore in September this year.
As a quick aside, we also assessed sentiment towards Donald Trump, given his recent rhetoric about ‘solving the [North Korean] problem’. Perhaps not surprisingly, opinion is heavily negative, with 66% of South Koreans indicating that they disapprove of Trump.