WITH 24 HOURS TO GO, LABOUR NUDGES INTO THE LEAD, BUT RESULT STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL
We’re now one day away from the 2017 UK General Election, an opportunity for the U.K. to choose its place in the world and – importantly – its negotiating team for Brexit. Qriously conducted its usual pre-election polling to assess the most likely result.
TURNOUT LIKELY HIGH
Despite claims that the British electorate would be weary and exhausted after being asked to go to the polls three times in as many years (four times for Scots!), turnout looks to be high by UK standards. We predict a turnout of around 70%, perhaps reflecting the energy that Labour has injected into the campaign in its dying weeks as the threat of a Tory landslide began to fade.
SLIGHT LEAD FOR LABOUR IN THE POPULAR VOTE, BUT RESULT TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Weeks ago, we published results on this blog indicating that the Conservatives held a steady lead. As with other pollsters, we’ve seen that lead evaporate over the past few weeks. Labour has now edged ahead, for the first time in our polling, and leads the popular vote by 3.
However, it’s worth noting that 14% of our ‘very likely voter’ sample are still undecided. This election hangs on a knife-edge, and the result could still go either way. Even leaving undecideds aside, a Conservative victory is still within the margins of error. We find the result too close to call at this stage.
In addition, Labour voters are less certain of their choice. Only 85% of ‘very likely’ Labour voters are absolutely certain of their choice; the equivalent figure for the Conservatives is 92%, meaning that a late swing to Conservative is more likely than a late swing to Labour. This makes the result even more uncertain and difficult to predict.
PLURALITY BELIEVE THEIR NEIGHBOURS WILL VOTE CONSERVATIVE
Interestingly, the Conservatives leads heavily in the ‘neighbour-voting’ question we include, by 6 points. This implies that our respondents believe that the odds are stacked against them – that many of their neighbours will vote Conservative – but still intend to vote Labour. This aligns well with Labour’s underdog status and matches with the polling average, implying that our respondents are aware of general polling sentiment indicating a likely Conservative victory.
To summarise, we give Labour a 3-point lead over the Conservatives in our final election poll, although the result is still within error margins and the final outcome is too close to call.
Data was collected between 4 June and 7 June. Data was weighted on gender, age, region and income to match census targets (where available) or government data (where not). We sampled 2,213 UK adults, including 1,905 registered voters and 1,279 likely voters.